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Modeling the Role of Remaining Tropical Forests in Climate Change Mitigation

This study focuses on tropical deforestation, assuming that action is taken to reduce emissions from other land use change. We find that in the absence of tropical deforestation, rapid emissions reductions of 80% between 2000 and 2050 in fossil fuel and other sectors would deliver a 65% chance of staying below the 2°C threshold. If tropical deforestation instead continues at current rates, the chance falls to 34%. To compensate the additional climate change caused by continued current rates of tropical deforestation, a doubling of global mitigation efforts (from 3% to 6% per year) would be required to maintain the same 65% chance to avoid temperature rise in excess of 2°C above pre-industrial levels.

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